Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
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“An increase of 25% would be a huge success in a market where domestic leagues have been struggling to generate even low one-figure percentage increases,” said François Godard, a media analyst at Enders Analysis.
The French group may even have managed to lower the price, which had reached €480 million for the current cycle. "Maxime Saada [the head of Canal+, editor's note] may have been bluffing when he said he was ready to lose the exclusive rights to the competition," analyzes François Godard, a sports rights specialist at Enders Analysis.
“For current subscribers, it’s not a disaster; they would have continued to get the majority of the matches. For new subscribers, it’s more difficult to recruit them,” explains François Godard. “It becomes confusing when several broadcasters are advertising the same competition.”
DAZN is on track to reach profitability in 2026, the tenth year since its launch, supported by Foxtel’s full-year consolidation and the margin improvements already evident in its 2024 accounts.
Foxtel’s integration diversifies the group, with Australia becoming DAZN’s largest market by revenue.
Expansion in ancillary areas (betting, product developments) and the distribution of third-party services under revenue-sharing agreements complements DAZN’s rights’ ownership in key markets.
"The cited £2bn price tag sounds like an ask from the sellers rather than something that’s likely to be paid in anything like hard currency (equivalent to £700-900 per home passed depending on whether it includes Netomnia’s net debt)
We would be surprised if anyone pays more than £500 per home passed in cash. Nexfibre can build new fibre for that price, and overlay it’s cable network for £100 per home passed. With 50%+ overlap between Netomnia and Virgin Media O2/nexfibre, that points to a reasonable price of <£300 per home passed, or an overall price tag of less than £1bn
Enders Analysis has estimated that an ITV-Sky sales tie-up would hold just over 30% of the UK video ad market.
Overall, it calculated that tech giants Google, Meta and Amazon account for 55% of the total UK ad market but, narrowed down to just video, Sky Media and ITV Media would hold just over 30%, a share that would be “very likely to decline over time”.
A key test in this investigation, Enders projected, would be convincing the CMA that the relevant ad market in which ITV and Sky competes is broader than just the UK broadcasters.
It added: “It would be a missed opportunity for the CMA not to reconsider what the definition of the relevant advertising market may be, and whether some or all of advertising in other video should be included.
“National broadcasters must grow in order to compete against the global tech streamers, including YouTube.”
Saturday’s leader in the Telegraph op-ed pages called for a fast sale without a reserve price to expedite the process – a sharp contrast with its recent demands for thorough investigation and regulatory examination of the RedBird bid. “Telegraph Media Group’s 2024 performance lands where you might expect a business trapped in a two-year ownership freeze,” said Abi Watson at Enders Analysis. “Its topline was essentially flat - up 1% to £279m - with operating profit broadly unchanged. The deeper issue is structural. TMG still derives 55% of revenue from print, or closer to 60% if you strip out ‘other revenues’ like platform licensing and eCommerce. Digital subscriptions and digital advertising together account for around 40% of core revenues, but they are still not scaling fast enough to offset print erosion - not exactly what any bidder would want to see in a legacy-to-digital transition story.”
Q2 results were something of a mixed bag. Headline growth was solid thanks to 1&1 onboarding, and whilst underlying trends in Germany for both revenue and EBITDA were still firmly negative, the former stabilised and the latter improved.
Tightening of EBITDA guidance in Europe is welcome, implying a flat headline performance and an underlying EBITDA decline of no more than 4%, with the potential for better, we believe.
VodafoneThree synergies and cloud reselling should take over the growth mantle when the 1&1 boost fades, facilitating some limited capacity for dividend growth.
Disney’s streaming business grew healthily, with Q4 YoY revenue growth (+8%) outpacing Q3 (+6%). Cinema had another tough quarter, although the full year ended well ahead
Disney's progress on new platforms—in particular its efforts on Fortnite and the launch of ESPN's new app—increases the pressure on its US linear operation: it may not yet be moribund but has declining relevance to the rest of the business
In the UK, Disney+ continues to be challenged by its engagement levels—e.g. top new shows, a major driver, are relatively less likely to cut through its user base—but there appears to be a disconnect between lower usage and churn
“It is so difficult to prove defamation in the US, and for a program that Americans have not seen,” said Claire Enders, a media analyst and founder of Enders Analysis. “There is no basis for the lawsuit, and there would be no basis for a settlement.”